University of Nizwa and Environment Authority’s Scientists Highlight Accelerating Warming Trends in Oman with Implications for the Nation’s Net-Zero Pathway
In a landmark contribution to national environmental science, a research team from the Natural & Medical Sciences Research Centre at the University of Nizwa and the Directorate General of Environmental Compliance at the Environment Authority have published Oman’s first four-decade surface air-temperature trend assessment (1981–2020) in the internationally reputed journal Earth Systems and Environment. The study provides the most comprehensive scientific evidence to date of long-term warming across the Sultanate and delivers critical insights for Oman’s zero-carbon transition and climate-resilient development agenda.
Professor Ahmed bin Sulaiman Al Harrasi, Vice Chancellor for Postgraduate Studies, Scientific Research and External Relations at the University of Nizwa, noted that the project reflects strong national and international collaboration, bringing together expertise from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM Pune), and Oman’s Civil Aviation Authority and Environment Authority.
Dr Baiju Dayanandan, atmospheric science researcher and project supervisor, explained that the study employs state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, rigorously validated against observations from 14 meteorological stations spanning northern, central, and southern Oman. Robust climate-diagnostic techniques, including the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator, were applied to accurately detect warming signals despite data gaps and regional climatic diversity.
The results reveal that Oman is warming at a rate of approximately 0.23–0.25 °C per decade, with spring and autumn showing the fastest temperature increases. The decade 2011–2020 emerged as the hottest on record, accompanied by a dramatic rise in extreme heat events. The frequency of very hot days exceeding 45 °C and tropical nights above 30 °C has nearly tripled across inland regions, posing serious challenges to human health, energy demand, and outdoor labour productivity.
Regionally, northern Oman exhibits the strongest warming trends, while central Oman records the most intense heat exposure, with temperatures above 36 °C persisting for more than 110 days annually. In southern Oman, particularly the Dhofar region, the study identifies increasing night-time heat retention into late autumn, linked to cloud-radiative processes within its unique monsoon-influenced microclimate.
Crucially, the findings carry strong implications for Oman’s zero-carbon and energy-transition strategy. Rising temperatures are projected to significantly increase cooling-energy demand, placing added pressure on power infrastructure and emissions reduction targets. The study provides an essential scientific foundation for optimising renewable-energy deployment, improving energy efficiency standards, strengthening urban heat mitigation, and advancing climate-smart infrastructure planning all central pillars of Oman Vision 2040 and the Sultanate’s pathway toward net-zero emissions.
The research was supported by national institutions, with meteorological data stewardship ensured by the Oman Civil Aviation Authority, and policy-oriented environment interpretation guided by the Environment Authority under the leadership of Dr Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani, Director General of Environmental Compliance at the Environment Authority, Sultanate of Oman. The outcomes are expected to directly support evidence-based policymaking in carbon-neutral planning, water-stress management, public-health protection, and climate-risk adaptation.
This achievement was enabled by strong academic leadership within Oman’s higher education system. Strategic direction was provided by the Honourable Chancellor of the University of Nizwa, Prof Ahmed Al Rawahi, with research oversight by Prof Ahmed Al Harrasi, Vice Chancellor for Research, Graduate Studies and External Relations. Together, their support reaffirms the University of Nizwa’s growing role as a national hub for climate analytics, extreme-heat diagnostics, and zero-carbon policy relevant research across Oman and the wider Arabian Peninsula.
